This is a longitudinal study that follows the youngest school-age children affected by the COVID-19 pandemic over time to understand the long-term impact of the partial school closures on pupils’ attainment (reading and maths) and social skills, and on the gap between the attainment of disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged children.
The research, conducted by the National Foundation for Education Research (NFER), builds on findings from theinitial study (Rose et al. 2021) and tracks pupils who were in KS1 (Year 1 and Year 2) during the first partial school closure in 2020/21 through primary school until they are in Year 4 and Year 5 in 2023/24.
This study aims to understand two attainment gaps:
- The ‘Covid-19 gap’: The extent of the impact on pupils’ attainment in reading and mathematics by partial school closures.
- The ‘disadvantage gap’: The extent to which pupils eligible for Free School Meals show lower reading and mathematics performance compared to their peers who are not eligible.
The study estimates the Covid-19 gap by comparing the attainment outcomes of the pupils in the study, measured by NFER assessments of reading and mathematics, to the attainment outcomes of a representative sample of pupils assessed before the Covid-19 pandemic. The disadvantage gap is estimated by comparing the assessment scores of pupils eligible for FSM and those not eligible to determine the disadvantage gap between these two groups. The study also utilises a repeated measures design, such that the attainment outcomes of the same pupils are compared to their outcomes in the previous academic years. This is used to quantify how the Covid-19 gap and disadvantage gap change over time.
In addition to measuring reading and mathematics attainment, the study also includes a teacher measure of pupils’ social skills for a sub-sample of twelve pupils within each year group in each school. Contextual information about school practices and any catch-up activities being undertaken with pupils is also collected though a survey completed school leaders.
We have published three reports from the present study:
- The report from the first year (Wheater et al. 2022) can be found here. It includes findings from the 2021/22 academic year, when the pupils were in Year 2 and Year 3.
- The report from the second year (Rose et al. 2023) can be found here. It includes findings from the 2022/23 academic year when the pupils were in Year 3 and Year 4.
- The most recent report can be found here. It covers the 2023/24 academic year when the pupils were in Year 4 and Year 5.
On average, most children in this study have caught up to pre-pandemic levels, however low attaining and disadvantaged pupils continue to be affected by Covid-19 school closures.
- By spring 2024, on average, Year 4 and Year 5 pupils’ attainment in both reading and maths appears to have recovered (and in some cases improved) compared to where we would have expected them to be before the pandemic. In Year 4 mathematics and Year 5 reading there was no significant difference in pupils’ performance compared with the 2017 pre-pandemic standardisation samples (ES = 0.055, and 0.002, respectively) i.e. their reading and mathematics was at a similar level to where we would expect them to be. Moreover, in Year 4 reading, pupils were two months ahead although this was not statistically significant (ES = 0.110) and in Year 5 mathematics pupils were three months ahead of expectations compared with the 2017 pre-pandemic standardisation sample (ES = 0.218). This has been a journey of continued improvement from spring 2021 until spring 2024.
- The attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils and their peers remains large, but there are some signs of improvement for Year 4 pupils as there has been a reduction in the disadvantage gap since we measured it in Spring 2021. The disadvantage gaps for reading in spring 2024 for Year 4 and Year 5 are around seven and six months’ progress, respectively. The disadvantage gaps for mathematics in spring 2024 for Year 4 and Year 5 are both around seven months’ progress.
- Small group work and staff redeployment are still commonly used strategies for learning recovery, along with one to one catch up, although less so than last year. Schools are also frequently using small group wellbeing sessions and external support to improve pupil wellbeing. The majority of schools felt that parents were as capable of providing support in 2023/2024 as they had been in the previous academic year. This was also the case for parents’ willingness to provide support (although where schools did report disruption to learning, lack of parental engagement was a concern). Nearly all schools were prioritising additional support for very low-attaining pupils, and two-thirds (fewer than last year) were doing so for disadvantaged pupils.
- On average, the social maturity of pupils in 2023/2024 was not significantly different to those expected of children of the same age had the pandemic not happened. Most pupils were broadly average in terms of their social maturity, although disadvantaged pupils, and boys, were assessed as having significantly lower social skills than non-disadvantaged pupils and girls, respectively.
In previous years, we have seen a large increase in the number of very low attainers compared with before the pandemic. While we continue to see a large number of low attainers in Year 5 reading in spring 2024, elsewhere in the study, the number of very low attainers appears to have decreased this year. However, there was an increase in the number of pupils considered ‘unable to access the curriculum’. These pupils were withdrawn from taking the assessments in spring 2024.