Education Endowment Foundation:44% of the GCSE disadvantage gap is locked in by age 11, first-of-its-kind research shows

Nearly half (44 per cent) of the gap between the GCSE results of disadvantaged pupils and their peers already exists at age 11, according to new Education Policy Institute (EPI) and Education Endowment Foundation (EEF) research, underscoring the critical role of early years and primary education in young people’s later success.

The data is published today in a new report, ​‘Growing Apart’, commissioned and co-published by EEF. The study provides the most comprehensive examination to date of the socioeconomic attainment gap in England, tracking how educational inequalities develop across different phases of a child’s life. Specifically, the research tracks the evolution of the disadvantage gap across four compulsory phases of a child’s life: the Early Years Foundation Stage (age 5), Key Stage 2 (age 11), Key Stage 4 (age 16) and 16 – 19 education.

The study was designed to address two fundamental questions: which specific factors are associated with lower attainment for disadvantaged children and young people, and whether the gap is driven more by who pupils are, or where they learn and live. ​‘Growing Apart’ serves to inform the research priorities of the EEF and policymakers, ensuring that future interventions are directed toward areas of maximum potential impact.

Key findings include:

• The largest contributor to the KS4 gap is the lower prior attainment (at age 11) among disadvantaged pupils, adding 6.8 months to the gap. Prior attainment at age seven (Key Stage 1) also contributes (1.6 months) over and above KS2 attainment, reinforcing that early intervention has a ​‘protective’ factor against gap-widening later on.
• Disrupted schooling – notably pupil absence – plays a progressively larger role as children progress from primary to secondary school. Absence contributes around one-fifth (21 per cent) of the gap at KS2, rising to one-third (34 per cent) by KS4.
• Even moderate absenceYou can assign a term to a certain definition. We provide extra options to extend upon the glossary creation. over years 9 to 11 – defined as an absence rate at or above the national average but below 10 per cent – is associated with lower GCSE attainment by 5.5 months, compared with similar pupils whose absence is below the national average. This attainment penalty grows to 9.6 months among persistently absent pupils (pupils missing between 10 and 50 per cent of school sessions) and to 20.9 months among severely absent pupils (pupils missing 50 per cent or more of school sessions).
• Differences in disadvantaged pupils’ attainment in core subjects (mathematics and English) are strongly associated with the size of the gap across phases. Even by age 11, a large part of the 10.1‑month KS2 gap is explained by disadvantaged pupils having already fallen behind at age five in literacy (adding 1.9 months), maths (1.3 months) and communication and language (1.0 month).
• Around 10 per cent of the disadvantage gap at ages 16 – 19 is linked to the characteristics of students’ peers, with disadvantaged students more likely to study in settings with lower average prior attainment and higher concentrations of disadvantage and SEND.