This project is no longer recruiting.

Secondary schools are invited to participate in a survey exploring how schools predict maths grades and make choices about which tier to enter students in if they have predicted grades of 4 or 5.

Taking part involves:

• The Head of Maths, Maths Key Stage 4 lead or other relevant staff member in a school with Year 11 students taking maths GCSE this academic year completes a short, 15-minute survey.

Those who complete the survey will:

• Receive analysis of the survey results, along with an analysis of previous national examination results for students who achieve middle GCSE grades and how this relates to their KS2 attainment and tier of entry.
• Be entered into a prize draw, with a chance to receive a £20 gift voucher.

This study is a ​‘School Choices’ project that aims to test the impact of entering pupils with a predicted grade of 4 or 5 into higher or foundation tier GCSE mathematics papers on their GCSE maths outcomes. 

School leaders make choices about school-wide practices and approaches that are intended to produce positive outcomes for pupils, such as how to organise the school day or communicate with families. However, many school-level practices have limited or no supporting research evidence, which means leaders must make decisions using other information. The aim of School Choices research is to produce causal evidence about the impact of different school-level approaches and policies on outcomes of interest, with particular attention to impact on pupils from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds.

School Choices evaluations are divided into two phases: a scoping phase and an impact evaluation phase. During the scoping phase, the research teams will refine their research questions, verify their assumptions, and explore the feasibility of their evaluation designs.

This project is co-funded by leading algorithmic trading company XTX Markets as part of our work to commission independent evaluations that aim to improve maths outcomes for 11 – 16-year-olds in secondary schools in England.

Schools make different choices both in relation to the processes they follow to predict grades and in relation to how they decide upon the tier of exam enrolment for GCSE mathematics. These choices can have consequential impacts for pupils in terms of maximising their chances of receiving a ​’pass’, but also in terms of capping their potential attainment level and therefore the progression routes open to them.

The Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual) recommends that pupils predicted to achieve grade 4 or 5 at GCSE should be entered for the foundation tier (so would be able to achieve a maximum of grade 5), whilst those predicted to achieve grade 6 or above should be entered for the higher tier (maximum of grade 9), but there is variation in how schools follow this guidance.

Currently there is limited available research evidence that schools can use to base their decisions on. Their prediction of exam grades will usually be based on mock exam performance but may be influenced by a number of other factors such as previous attainment, assessment of learning behaviours, target grades, class grouping and sometimes parental influence. The aim of the project is to provide the sector with robust evidence that can inform and optimise schools’ tier of entry decisions to maximise outcomes for all pupils, in particular those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

This project is currently at the scoping phase. The aim of the scoping phase is to assess the feasibility of designing an impact evaluation that can produce evidence about the impact of tier entry decisions which could then potentially improve outcomes for pupils and specifically disadvantaged pupils.

The scoping phase will:

• Determine how schools make decisions about the tier of entry for GCSE maths, including how predicted grades are determined and how closely Ofqual guidance is followed.
• Identify other factors which influence schools’ decisions on tier of entry, to enhance understanding of how different school practices might lead to differences in pupil outcomes.
• Analyse data from previous years’ GCSE maths results to examine relationships between GCSE grades, tier of entry, and pupil characteristics such as eligibility for free school meals.
• Check whether it is possible to carry out a full impact evaluation, or whether a different evaluation method would work better.